AVEPM Workshop

AVEPM Workshop

Title: Infectious disease modeling

When: Saturday, January 21, 2023. 12:00pm to 4:00pm

Where: Chicago Marriott Downtown, Magnificent Mile

Cost: Students (AVEPM Student Members– Free; all other students $25),

Faculty/Senior Scientists (AVEPM Members $50; all others $100)

Registration:  To register, visit the CRWAD Registration page and click on “Register for CRWAD”.

Maximum number: 50

Workshop Summary: Infectious disease modeling provides a framework for quantifying disease transmission and dynamic risk, and therefore has been a crucial tool for epidemiologists throughout the response to COVID-19. This workshop will cover the basics of compartmental models, both deterministic and stochastic, how to build and fit them in R, and how to interpret their output for decision-making. The workshop will also involve discussion of the limitations of different modeling approaches and the data requirements for each. In order to maximize experiential learning, the workshop will use a flipped format, with background reading, code in R markdown, and links to short videos will be provided to participants in advance. Reading and videos will cover the theoretical basis for the approaches to be used, define key terms, and provide examples from the epidemiologic literature. During the workshop, participants will work in small groups through a series of hands-on projects applying the approaches within R/R Studio. At the end of the workshop, the attendees will participate in a guided discussion of the practicalities of the models they built, and how the models and their conclusions might be presented to different audiences (such as policy makers or the media). The goal of the workshop is to empower participants to seek additional training, build collaborations with modeling experts, and think critically about the structure, assumptions, and applicability of infectious disease models.

 

AGENDA

Pre-workshop: Theoretical Readings and Videos

In-person workshop: Hands on experiential learning (~4-hours)

Introduction (30-minutes)

Project 1: Deterministic Models (45-minutes)

  • Make a simple change to an SIR model
  • Scenario analysis: modify beta to account for NPIs

Project 2: Stochastic Models (45-minutes)

  • Change the population size
  • Compare probability of fadeout to curves from Project 1

Project 3: Model Fitting (45-minutes)

  • Deterministic model fitting with MLE and case data

Discussion (50-minutes)

  • Data requirements and limitations
  • Comparative applications
  • How to present results

 

To register for the AVEPM Workshop, please visit the CRWAD Registration page and click on “Register for CRWAD”.

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